And even though there's zero cushion to miss the mark, we won't be all that in your face about our fundraising again until June. That means we're going to have upwards of $350,000, maybe more, to raise in online donations between now and June 30, when our fiscal year ends and we have to get to break-even. We just wrapped up a shorter-than-normal, urgent-as-ever fundraising drive and we came up about $45,000 short of our $300,000 goal. I sure hope Trump doesn’t run his business with financial estimates like this.īy signing up, you agree to our privacy policy and terms of use, and to receive messages from Mother Jones and our partners. And they’re still off by a factor of at least four. But this supposedly came from someone who actually thought about these numbers. So where does 20 million come from? If it were just Trump blathering away, the question wouldn’t be worth asking. If that many more people had jobs, the economy would be roaring along at a 1960s boom level. In other words, 5 million is the absolute max, even in theory. If you do the calculation based on the current output gap instead of the U6 rate, you come up with roughly the same number. We’d hit that mark if 5 million more people were working. The U6 series only goes back to 1994, but a good guess is that the lowest it’s been in all of postwar history is about 6.5 percent. Even if they’re discouraged and not currently looking for work, they’re counted. This represents every single human being in the country who wants a job but can’t get one, or who wants a full-time job but can only get part-time work. Consider: the U6 unemployment rate right now is 9.7 percent. Who knows? But the carefully handled Donald Trump produces a well-modulated stream of numbers that actually sounds plausible.Īnd yet-even with someone else carefully vetting the numbers, they still don’t come close to making sense. The real Donald Trump would have ranted about the real unemployment rate being 40 percent and 50 million people being out of work or something. First, Trump was reading off a teleprompter, and you can tell. There are two interesting things about this. America’s “job creation deficit” due to slower growth since 2002 is well over 20 million jobs - and that’s just about the number of jobs our country needs right now to put America back to work at decent wages. What does this mean for Americans? For every one percent of GDP growth we fail to generate in any given year, we also fail to create over one million jobs. However, since 2002 - the year after we fully opened our markets to Chinese imports - that GDP growth rate has been cut almost in half. From 1947 to 2001 - a span of over five decades - our inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew at a rate of 3.5%. Massive trade deficits subtract directly from our Gross Domestic Product. Professor Trump delivered a lecture on the evils of international trade today. Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.
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